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I promised to put a full 2020 electoral forecast out by Friday, October 30th, and .. well, here it is (well, actually, it’s at the bottom of the page.)
The Analysis
I’ve spent the last two weeks examining polls by digging into their crosstabs, demographics, turnout models and teasing out the voting groups I believe will make a difference for each candidate.
Voting Blocks
Joe Biden’s base, a term to be used lightly, consists mainly of staunch Democrats, the far-left, social justice warriors, union leaders, and anti-Trumpers. That’s not a following, that’s people who are voting for the lesser-of-two-evils from their perspective or that have something to gain. His public appearances are sparsely attended. And, just look at yard signs – no, not the signs in the median, or at the corner. People who put their vote on display in front of their homes aren’t nearly as enthusiastic for Biden as they were for Obama in 2008. Not by a mile.
President Trump has an actual base: people who will stand in line overnight, in the rain, in the cold, to see him. His base consists of pro-military, pro-law enforcement, social conservatives, middle-class manufacturing and energy sector workers, evangelicals, and America-firsters. It’s a collage of people, but it’s the core of America – people who get up and go to work every day to provide for their families while having great respect for the country that makes that possible and those that protect that country and its laws.
By understanding these groups, you only have to look at the positions announced or actions taken by each candidate to understand how skewed media polling is. In some battleground states, media polls have results that are easily 15+ points left of what I, and others, believe the actual vote will be. Trafalgar Group, Susquehanna, Rasmussen and a few others have reliable turnout models built into their polls, most others seem to be fantasizing about a 2008-like turnout in 2020. That’s not how this works, that’s not how it’s going to work.
Turnout Predictions
In 2016, Democrats put up an unpopular, corrupt, old white political elitist with health issues to go against Donald Trump. Trump was, and is, a political outsider that puts Main Street first.
In 2020, Democrats have put up another unpopular, corrupt, old white political elitist with health issues to go against Donald Trump. Which turnout model do you think I’m using in this forecast? Yup, 2016 – with some guessing around how the enthusiasm gap will materialize among absentee/mail-in voters.
The Results
With that said, I am forecasting a solid, but not landslide re-election victory for President Donald Trump and here’s how I think he’ll do on November 3rd (or 4th, or 5th…) If you believe I have it wrong, or right, the comment section below is all yours.
2020 Forecast Map – Biden vs. Trump
Prediction: Trump wins 286 – 252 (only 270 electoral votes are needed to win).
I won’t even try to forecast the popular vote because that’s not how we elect our president – lest California and New York decide all of our futures for us.
No matter who you’re voting for in 2020, get out and vote. This one is going to be one for the history books.
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Read the Original Article Here
I want to see Trump win , if only to see the screaming Left cry a river .
Your analysis indicates that a lot of states have to break right (I know – bad pun) for Trump to win. Biden has more solid electoral votes right now.
Wrong….they have already lost Florida
I wish, but you are drawing too many parallels between 2020 and 2016. First of all, Biden is NOT Hillary Clinton!! That was the biggest thing that Trump had going for him. Many undecided voters at election day went with Trump because he didn’t have a “past” as HC did. She just might be the worst candidate that a major political party ever ran. The “lesser of two evils” demographic played in here. Second, Trump has continuously shown himself as a jerk, a jackass, and one of the biggest narcissist’s that has ever lived. When he gives speeches, he does not prepare his speech and does too much “off the cuff” stuff and he continuously puts his foot in his mouth. He also has been CAUGHT lying on a number of occasions. Plus, he says stupid things all the time as well. When he suggested that we ought to look into BLEACHING our internal organs to fight the virus, the look on Dr. Birk’s face just told the story. Plus, to continuously go against the advice of greatest expert in the world, Dr. Fauci, is beyond ridiculous. His narcissism won’t let him use the words, “I don’t know” when he didn’t know. I could go on and on. Now, for those who have read this far, you are thinking that I am voting for Joe Biden. YOU WOULD BE WRONG!! I’m going to vote for Trump because I am a lifelong “Reagan Republican” and I think that Trump has done a good enough job to warrant my vote. But, this prediction and the map is going to be totally wrong. You can discount the polls all you want, and some of them will be wrong as to the margin of victory, but Trump is going to lose BADLY on Tuesday or whenever they get it finally sorted out. Of course, being the narcissist that he is, he will scream FRAUD and will NEVER admit he lost. I’m afraid, for our country’s sake, that some of his most rabid supporters will use the violence that the leftists usually use. I hope not. All we can do, those of us that are true patriots, can do what we can but pray. God help us!
The bleach remark did not happen. You may be right on criticizing this articles conclusion though. I wish Trump was of more sterling character but I prefer to look at results. What is remarkable about your response is the ignoring of all the Biden character faults, lack of accomplishments, direction he would take the country and failing mental acuity.
I too wish Trump commented and Twittered “differently”, but there is no question Trump is on the right side of our Country’s proper, deserved, necessary direction. Besides, socialism cannot live here so that blocks Biden and that harpy Harris who couldn’t even get to the first Dem Primary on her own and now is salivating at the real prospect that she will become POTUS sooner rather than later. I don’t understand anyone voting for Biden with his ongoing lying about Trump’s accomplishments, repeating FAKE NEWS (like saying Trump only paid $750 in taxes when Trump corrected him during the debate that he prepaid millions in taxes and I know that I had to do that also with self-employment income) amongst other lies about Trump! The fact that it is now known how corrupt the “BIDEN FAMILY LEGACY” is based on and Biden should be taken off the ticket yesterday is astounding that he is still out there campaigning. We are going to hell in a handcart if the Dems “win”, it means we citizens will LOSE BIGTIME and FOR YEARS OR FOREVER! How dare idiots voting for BIden because they HATE Trump – it shows their stupid mentality!
McCoy said there is no comparison between Hilary and Joe, because Hilary had a lot of baggage, as if Joe has no baggage. It is laughable, because Joe has more bag to deal with than that sinister witch.
Trump is criticized for being brusk and unrefined on Twitter, but that’s just fine with me. I don’t judge him on how he says what he’s going to do, I judge him by how well he does what he says he’s going to do. He gets the job done. He has to use Twitter, because the Leftmedia will not report the good he is doing.
As a Vietnam veteran, I can tell you I’ve heard a lot of coarse language tossed at us, but I’m alive today because of it. The Rules of Engagement employed in the Middle East cost us unnecessary losses. The war was kibitzed by and restricted by eloquent lawyers, not coarse warriors. I’ll take a coarse warrior over an effete politician any time my life depends on it. Today, America’s life is grievously imperiled by wimpy politicians.
And, what, “Trump lied and people died” is your response to the WuFlu pandemic? I know it’s one of the Left’s leading arguments. If my platoon were facing Omaha Beach (World War II, for those who have suffered the redacted history lessons of those pushing the “1619 Program”), how well would we have fought the enemy if our commanding officer had said, “You’re all gonna die!”
Churchill was right — “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” No wonder American Leftists ditched Churchill’s bust. They’re all a bunch of self-serving cowards. Do they think Trump should not have worked to prevent a national hysteria? Nobody succeeds if they give in to fear.
Trump’s heart is good, like his followers’.
Biden’s heart is bad, like his followers’.
Good prevails. God prevails.
We can’t forget the early mail-in votes. By Tuesday, there could be 90 million, or so. They say the Dems have an advantage of 60/40. Most believe the vote will also be 60/40 in favor of the Dems. That isn’t true. We are overlooking the fact that Biden will not receive all those mail-in votes. So, the guesstimate of about 90 million early (mail-in) votes by Tuesday is an awful large #, however, if even 1 in 9 Dems vote for Trump, that would equal a 10 million vote swing in Trump’s favor.
Some say say you just don’t like Trump.
Well, what is it about him that you dislike?
Do you dislike that he directed the brokering of the first meaningful Mideast peace deal in decades (and was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize)?
Do you dislike that he brokered a historic peace deal between Serbia and breakaway republic Kosovo for which he was nominated for a SECOND Nobel Peace Prize?
Do you dislike that he made cruelty to animals a felony? Or don’t you care?
Do you dislike that he earmarked billions to stop the opioid crisis?
Do you dislike that he destroyed ISIS, killed countless terrorists without going to war (even though everyone said we’d be in World War III by now) and kept the peace?
Do you dislike that we’re now energy independent and the largest producer of energy in the world?
Do you dislike him because he started to build a wall to keep criminals and drugs from coming into our country and because he respects, honors and defends our country’s borders?
Do you dislike him because he just slashed the price for prescription drugs (In some cases by 50%) which is driving Big Pharma nuts?
Do you dislike that he met with the leader of North Korea, averted war with that country and brought a halt to their aggressive missile testing? Was that wrong?
Do you dislike that he signed a law ending the gag-order on pharmacists that prevented them from sharing money-saving options on prescriptions?
Do you dislike that he signed the Save Our Seas Act which funds millions per year to clean tons of plastic and garbage from the ocean? Does that bother you?
Do you dislike that he signed a bill for airports to provide breast-feeding stations for nursing moms?
Do you dislike that he signed the biggest wilderness protection and conservation bill in a decade designating 375,000 acres as protected land, making him the most significant conservation president since Teddy Roosevelt?
Does it irk you that he loves America, and puts Americans first? Is that the problem?
Do you dislike that he made a gay man the ambassador to Germany and then asked him to clean up national security, declassifying as much of it as possible for transparency?
Do you dislike that he works for free, donating his salary to a different charity each quarter?
Do you dislike that his economic policies have produced the lowest Black unemployment rate ever?
Do you dislike that he listened to Senator Tim Scott and created opportunity zones to help minorities?
Do you dislike that he passed prison reform, which gives people a second chance and has made quite a huge difference for minorities in particular?
Do you dislike that he produced the lowest Hispanic unemployment rate ever?
Do you dislike that he passed VA reforms to benefit the very people who served our country and defended our freedom?
Do you dislike that he got rid of the job-killing NAFTA trade deal, got tough on trade with China and negotiated new trade deals with Mexico, Canada and other countries that benefit American workers?
Do you dislike that he loves our flag and embraces a policy of unabashed, non-apologetic patriotism? Do you have a problem with that?
Do you dislike that he calls out the media and attempts to correct them when they are wrong?
Do you dislike that he’s bringing troops home and ending America’s longest war? Do you want the war to continue?
Do you dislike that he has made a commitment to end child-trafficking and crimes against humanity and his policies have brought about thousands of arrests already?
Do you dislike that he extended the offshore drilling ban along both Florida coasts as well as the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina? Are you bothered by that?
Do you dislike the fact that he’s brought home over 40 Americans held captive, the last one from Iran?
Do you dislike that he’s making the world pay their fair share to the United Nations?
Do you dislike that he respects cops, veterans, ICE and all first responders?
Do you dislike that he does not sell out America to other countries, like the leaders prior to him have done?
Do you dislike that he’s forced our NATO allies and others to finally pay their fair share to support important multi-national alliances?
Do you dislike that he moved our embassy in Israel to Jerusalem which is the rightful capital of the Jewish state?
Do you dislike that he signed the Right To Try law allowing terminally ill patients access to experimental therapies?
This list is hardly a complete list of what President Trump has accomplished in four years.
There’s actually more — a lot more. But hopefully, you get the idea.
Nobody is asking you to love President Trump. Nobody is asking you to be his best friend. In fact, you don’t even have to like him.
But just take a moment to give this some thought and you’ll find that you’d be less than fair if you did not recognize all that he’s accomplished for America — often against overwhelming odds and with powerful special interests and the press aligned against him.
So, try to put aside emotionalism and arbitrary and capricious preferences for now, avoid the temptation to demonize the president and focus on who’s really effective; who has the vision, stamina and determination to do the job; who gets things done and who’s going to continue to solve our problems and keep America on the right track moving forward.
We are voting for a LEADER that will work to keep the American culture in tact and to keep us free from Socialism.
We are not voting for a Pastor, a Priest or a BFF. He is a leader that gets things done. Thats what LEADERS do!!!
Excellent summation! The PROBLEM is most of the information you have posted was NOT Covered or UNDER Reported by the MSM and CNN, MSLSD, NPR, and Big Tech ( Twitter, Facebook, Google) are using the Goebbels technique or Canceling or Censoring posts. I think I have figured out the motive, it,s called MONEY. The WHY has to be deeper than just pushing the HATE motive because the media lost credibility in 2016. Are they dumb enough to believe they will prosper under Socialism? OR are they just Puppets for the 6 Oligarchs that CONTROL 90% of all Media?
My take is most Americans who WORK for a living wanted the Bureaucracy(aka SWAMP) Drained. In the meantime, they were enjoying higher wages with little to no Inflation until the CCP VIRUS struck. I could fill a book on the missteps that have occurred using the CDC’s and WHO own statistics. In Normal times this election would relegate the Leftest to the ash bin of History for another 50 years. However, Academia has had a 100 years to “TRICKLE DOWN” Socialism Good, America and our Judeo-Christian Ethos BAD.
Thanks Jim. Very well written. If only the majority of Americans were aware of the President’s successes as you’ve outlined, he’d be a shoe in on Nov. 3rd. Again well documented and nicely written.
Thank you. We see these things online, because the Leftmedia blocks anything positive about Trump and presents only negative reporting on him, often backed by complete fabrications and anonymous sources. The Leftist media moguls are loathe to the transmitting the truth about Trump, and have engaged in a censorship campaign to prevent the widespread distribution of positive Trump reporting.
It’s long past time that a corporation of conservatives banded together to offer alternative print media and broadcast media to disseminate conservative news.
I had considered seeking application of the same censorship programs against Leftists that Leftists use against conservatives, but it just couldn’t get past my own moral and ethical standards. I would nonetheless insist that each subscriber be given the opportunity to block the receipt of texts from trolls.
I’m certain Trump would win If not for the virus. The virus and the lockdown of the economy is the gift to Democrats. They even become giddy talking about it. Despite Trump’s best efforts and Biden’s stupidity, low info voters and leftists will vote for Biden. God help our once great country. And about Trump’s tweets, how else could he get his message out?The “mainstream “
media doesn’t even make an attempt at being unbiased anymore.
I have been a registered Democrat since J.F.K. and have voted that way ever since until Obama. Looking at my mistakes, I have had to rethink my politics I will stand in the rain, snow, or dark of night to cast my ballot for
Donald Trump. He has done more for the American people in the last 47 months than his opponent in 47 years.
I am a 73 years old Viet Nam vet who is now prospering from the advancements he has done for the V.A. and
I love the fact the will fight with all of this being for the people of this country and his opponent will do the same to
tear us up.
If you are brain dead, you can vote for Biden, but just wait to see what he might do to this country and you personally.
Forget being awakened in the middle of the night and try to call 911! {no response} Try to put money in the bank for a rainy day, every day will be rainy..
I could go on and on about the pros and cons, but you all know……
TRUMP 2020 REPUBLICANS FOR THE HOUSE AND SENATE!!!!!
Did you factor in voter fraud?
That is the Lefts ace up the sleeve. If Biden were to win, it would only be after long recounts, which the Left will slow walk to give their operatives an opportunity to “find” “lost” ballots.
In Minnesota, Al Franken won Only after several boxes of ballots were “found” in the trunk of a car. These should never have been presented, because they had dropped out of the “chain of custody.”
Evidence in a criminal investigation must never drop out of the chain of custody, and if it does, it cannot be used in court. The same principle must be used for ballots. If ballots fall out of protected custody, they must not be tallied in an election.
A law must be written to guarantee property custody of all ballots to protect the integrity of our elections. This must be done as soon as possible.