Two weeks until the election and there’s almost enough information to forecast how the presidential vote will go.

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the only two states I need more data to predict. Have no fear, I’ll put my name on the line within a week.

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Turnout will be a factor difficult to estimate for 2020. There are no models or precedent for so many voting absentee. How does enthusiasm affect sticking a ballot in an envelope?

So if you’re in a brown state (too-close-to-call) or a lightly shaded state (light support) consider getting to the polls. A slight turnout push in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could turn this from a tight race into a landslide.

Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina are must-wins for Trump if AZ and NV don’t come in. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the keys to a second term. So if you’re in any of those states, get your absentee ballots in, vote early or show up on election day – BUT VOTE.

But, here it is – in all its glory: Pennsylvania could be the key to this election.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidential election so Wisconsin, by itself, isn’t enough to push one man into the winner’s circle. In fact, it appears that Wisconsin won’t factor in this scenario.

Instead, Pennsylvania could put either Donald Trump or Joe Biden into the White House in January.

Methodology:

I took media/university/polling org polls and examined their likely voter turnout models. I adjusted them using more of a 2016 turnout, with some uncertainty around absentee voting. This is as much art as science, but hey, I only missed acing 2016 by one 10-point state – uhm.. Wisconsin.

This post will be updated as more data comes in.

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